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Flickr commons license. Photo by Marco Verch.
25 Mar 2024

NASA director says heatwaves of 2023 went beyond the scope of climate models

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"No year has confounded climate scientists’ predictive capabilities more than 2023 has", says the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies" in an article on Nature.com - suggesting that climate change could be more advanced than previously thought.

"Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory"

When Gavin Schmidt took over as the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, he reportedly inherited a project that tracks temperature changes since 1880. Using this trove of data, he's made climate predictions at the start of every year since 2016.

The past nine months have seen unprecedented heat spikes, surpassing previous temperature records by up to 0.2 °C globally, defying predictions from statistical climate models, according to the artucle. 

Various factors, including rising greenhouse gas emissions, the influence of El Niño and La Niña phenomena, and potential effects from volcanic eruptions and solar activity, have been considered, but none fully explain the magnitude of the temperature anomaly. 

The unexpected temperature anomaly in 2023 has highlighted a significant knowledge gap in climate science. Despite considering various factors, including aerosol effects, the anomaly remains largely unexplained.

If the anomaly persists beyond August, it could signify fundamental changes in the climate system due to global warming, occurring sooner than anticipated. 

It also suggests that statistical predictions based on past events may be less reliable, increasing uncertainty in seasonal forecasts of droughts and rainfall patterns. This situation underscores the urgent need for further research and monitoring to better comprehend and address these unprecedented changes.

 

Photo Credit: Flickr Free License

Photo by Marco Verch