Unusually large surf waves in Southern California not necessarily early signs of the 2026-27 Super El Niño
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The unusually large waves in Southern California in early September can likely not be interpreted as direct evidence that the developing 2026–27 El Niño is already producing its characteristic California impacts.
Photo Credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/royaltsd/14878574559
A hurricane off the Baja California Peninsula generated some of the biggest waves seen along the southern California coast in years. Photo from September 28, 2014 by DeeJaySD.
Although the developing 2026–27 El Niño is already exceptionally strong, meteorologists do not attribute the early-September Southern California surf event directly to El Niño. The immediate cause was distant Pacific tropical storm activity, particularly Hurricane Marie.
According to APNews, Hurricane Marie generated large long-period swells affecting Southern California. Surf waves reportedly reached up to 10 feet (3 meters) at some south-facing beaches, with dangerous rip currents.
The immediate cause of the recent dangerous surf was distant Pacific tropical activity, particularly Hurricane Marie, which never made landfall. However, the distinction should not obscure the extraordinary strength of the El Niño now developing: NOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter, while its latest modelling indicates that the event could rank among the strongest on record.
Public speculation has linked the surf conditions to the developing Super El Niño 2026–27, but scientific agencies emphasize that while El Niño can influence Pacific conditions before winter, its most characteristic impacts on California — particularly precipitation and storm-track changes — generally become more pronounced during the late fall and winter.
On September 8, NOAA's GFDL released a new El Niño forecast. It says the forecast has backed off slightly from the previous month's peak intensity, but all 30 model ensemble members still show an exceptionally strong event, potentially competing with or exceeding the strongest historical events.
Photo Credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/royaltsd/14878574559
A hurricane off the Baja California Peninsula generated some of the biggest waves seen along the southern California coast in years. Photo from September 28, 2014 by DeeJaySD.
Further Reading:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html?
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/prediction/september-2026-el-nino-predictions/?
https://news.surfoutlook.com/coastal-erosion-has-devastated-orange-countys-aliso-beach/?
https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/california-beach-hurricanes-22416337.php/