Europe simulated catastrophic solar storm 2025: All e-communication and navigation would be wiped out in Carrington-level event

In a sobering rehearsal of space weather disaster, the European Space Agency (ESA) has conducted its most extreme solar storm simulation to date—one so severe that no spacecraft would survive if it occurred in real life.

As CTIF.org has reported before, authorities around the world, and some fire services as well, are starting to prepare for the possibility of a catastrophic strength solar storm, and / or a geomagnetic storm similar to the Carrington Event of 1859, when telegraph lines melted and telegraph stations caught fire from the intense solar radiation.   

All electronic communication on Earth wiped out

"No communication or navigation, faulty electronics and collision risk. At ESA's mission control in Darmstadt, teams faced a scenario unlike any before: a solar storm of extreme magnitude. Fortunately, this nightmare unfolded not in reality, but as part of the simulation campaign for Sentinel-1D, pushing the boundaries of spacecraft operations and space weather preparedness.

Before every ESA launch, mission teams undergo a rigorous simulation phase which rehearses the first moments of a satellite in space, while preparing mission control for any anomaly. Since mid-September, teams at ESA's European Space Operations Center (ESOC), in Darmstadt, Germany, have been immersed in simulations for Sentinel-1D, scheduled for launch on 4 November 2025.

To model one of the most extreme scenarios, simulation officers drew inspiration from the infamous Carrington event of 1859, the strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. The exercise replicated the effects of a catastrophic solar storm on satellite operations to test the team's ability to respond without satellite navigation and under severe electronic disruption.

"Should such an event occur, there are no good solutions. The goal would be to keep the satellite safe and limit the damage as much as possible," says Thomas Ormston, Deputy Spacecraft Operations Manager for Sentinel-1D.

This campaign included a rare activation by ESA's Space Weather Office of its Space Safety Center, inaugurated in 2022 as part of ESA's growing commitment to space safety. ESA's Space Debris Office and the spacecraft operation managers of other ESA Earth-orbiting missions also joined the exercise to enhance realism, simulating cross-mission impacts and coordination".

From Phys.org: https://phys.org/news/2025-10-space-weather-drill-simulates-carrington.html

☀️ Simulating the Unthinkable

The simulation, held at ESA’s mission control center in Darmstadt, Germany, was modeled after the infamous Carrington Event of 1859, the most powerful geomagnetic storm ever recorded. That historical storm disrupted telegraph systems and lit up skies with auroras as far south as the Caribbean. But in today’s hyperconnected world, a similar event could cripple satellites, power grids, and global communications.

ESA’s exercise was part of the Sentinel-1D mission preparations, a radar satellite scheduled for launch in November 2025. The simulation tested how spacecraft operators would respond to a solar superstorm that unfolds in three devastating phases:

1. X-Class Solar Flare: Within eight minutes, intense radiation disrupted radar, GPS, and communications systems.
2. High-Energy Particle Storm: Minutes later, a barrage of protons and electrons bombarded satellites, corrupting data and damaging electronics.

3. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): Roughly 15 hours later, a massive plasma cloud slammed into Earth’s magnetic field, swelling the upper atmosphere and increasing satellite drag by up to 400%.

    

The simulation revealed how such an event could cascade across systems: satellite failures, navigation loss, power grid overloads, and even pipeline disruptions. ESA’s Space Weather Office and Space Debris Office coordinated across multiple missions to simulate real-time decision-making under extreme duress.

🌍 Earth on High Alert

The exercise comes amid heightened solar activity. According to the Times of India, scientists recently observed a solar storm that devastated Venus’s ionosphere, stripping away atmospheric particles and disrupting magnetic fields. Experts warn that Earth could be next, especially as we approach the solar maximum—the peak of the sun’s 11-year activity cycle. 

Preparing for the Inevitable

ESA officials emphasized that it’s not a question of if a major solar storm will strike Earth, but when. To improve early warning capabilities, ESA is preparing the Vigil mission, a spacecraft that will monitor the sun from the L5 Lagrange point starting in 2031. Its goal: detect solar eruptions before they reach Earth and give operators time to protect critical infrastructure.

Sources: 

Space.com – ESA simulates catastrophic solar storm

Times of India – Earth on high alert after Venus storm

Phys.org: https://phys.org/news/2025-10-space-weather-drill-simulates-carrington.html

Illustration Credit: Solar flares hitting earth seen from space. A satellite being destroyed by intense solar radiation during an imagined future extreme solar storm. Illustration generated by MS Copilot, from an idea by Bjorn Ulfsson, CTIF.  

⚡ Solar Storm Impact Timeline: ESA Simulation Highlights

This visual guide shows the three critical phases of a catastrophic solar storm, based on ESA’s 2025 simulation:

1. X-Class Solar Flare

• Time: T = 0 minutes
• Impact: Immediate burst of radiation disrupts GPS, radar, and communications
• Risk: Navigation loss, aviation interference, satellite signal degradation

2. High-Energy Particle Storm

• Time: T = +10 minutes
• Impact: Charged particles corrupt satellite electronics and data
• Risk: Satellite failures, data loss, increased radiation exposure for astronauts

3. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

• Time: T = +15 hours
• Impact: Massive plasma cloud hits Earth’s magnetosphere
• Risk: Geomagnetic storms, power grid overloads, increased satellite drag (up to 400%), pipeline disruptions
•  

🕰️ Historical Reference

• Carrington Event (1859): First recorded geomagnetic storm; disrupted telegraph systems and caused auroras worldwide

🚨 Modern Vulnerabilities

• Critical systems at risk:
  • Power grids
  • Communication networks
  • Satellites and GPS
  • Aviation and pipelines

🚀 ESA’s Vigil Mission (2031)

• Will monitor solar activity from the L5 Lagrange point
• Designed to provide early warnings for solar eruptions
• Aims to protect infrastructure and spacecraft from future solar storms