The Silent Threat: Understanding the Risks of Fires from Geomagnetic Storms Following Solar Flares

In the vast expanse of space, the sun emits bursts of energy in the form of solar flares. While these eruptions are mesmerizing to watch, their consequences can extend far beyond the reaches of space, posing significant risks to our planet, particularly in the form of geomagnetic storms.

It may sound like a conspiracy theory, but solar activity can affect both blood pressure and mental health in some patients: Several  smaller university research studies suggest that emergency rooms often experience higher than normal patient loads during strong geomagnetic storms. 

Illustration Credit: (Cover photo above) Photo of the sun with information about how long it takes for solar mass to reach earth. Illustration by the UK Department for Business Innovation and Skills. 

Text by Bjorn Ulfsson

From headaches to heart attacks, strokes and fires

Geomagnetic storms are normally harmless to people, as we are protected by the Earth's atmosphere. It is however common that while some are out hoping to see so called auroras or Northern Lights, others toss and turn in their beds unable to sleep due to headaches during these solar events.

Scientists are divided as to what causes these health issues in a small part of the population, usually individuals particularly prone to heart attacks, strokes or psychological disorders. 

While the impact of geomagnetic storms on power grids and communication networks is well-documented, another peril lurks beneath the surface: the heightened risk of fires due to electric induction in power- and communication wires. 

Geomagnetic storms occur when solar flares release colossal amounts of charged particles into space, some of which are directed towards Earth. When these particles interact with our planet's magnetic field, they can induce powerful electrical currents in the atmosphere and disrupt technological systems on the ground. 

Later in this article we will discuss some tips with links to how to prepare for these usually benign - but potentially devastating solar events. 

Telegraph wires caught fire from solar flares in 1859

The Carrington Event, a powerful geomagnetic storm that occurred in 1859, serves as a historical precedent for understanding the potential fire risk associated with solar flares and geomagnetic disturbances. During this event, intense geomagnetic activity induced electrical currents in telegraph lines, causing widespread disruptions and, in some cases, igniting fires in telegraph offices due to overheating. The Carrington Event highlights the susceptibility of electrical infrastructure to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and underscores the potential for fire outbreaks as a consequence of solar storms.

Mind4Survival.com wrote in September 2022 that the date for the Carrington Event was  September 1, 1859, The story started with a 33-year-old brewery owner with an interest in astronomy sketching sunspots in his notebook. The man’s name is Richard Carrington, and though he doesn’t know it yet, he’s about to make the history books. 

At 11:18 that morning, Carrington was suddenly seeing a blinding burst of light emanating from the sun. Bewildered, he grappled with the unfamiliar spectacle, pondering its significance. However, it isn't until the following day that the full magnitude of the sun's activity becomes apparent, and Carrington begins to comprehend the terrestrial repercussions.

The immense solar storm of The Carrington Event was underway.

Carrington's Solar Storm Illuminates the night sky In the dead of night, the sky erupts with an unprecedented brilliance, deceiving both humans and wildlife alike. In South Carolina, residents awaken, mistakenly believing it to be dawn, only to realize it's still the middle of the night. 

Birds sang in the middle of the night 

Songbirds, too, commenced their melodies, fooled by the unnatural brightness. Yet, more forebodingly, individuals across the globe question if this celestial spectacle marks the beginning of the end, as vivid auroras grace the skies in regions where northern lights have never been seen before.

As dawn breaks, telegraph operators worldwide grapple with an inability to send or receive messages. Spontaneous fires erupt at telegraph stations in various locations, and reports emerge of operators succumbing to electrocution.

Unbeknownst to them, this generation has borne witness to a historic event—the Carrington Event, also known as the "Great Auroral Storm."

Many have wondered how our modern society, with so much more sensitive technology, would stand up to such an event. Could electrical wires in our homes catch fire? Will computer servers and the internet go down? Will cell phones and other communications go down?

Finnish study on tree rings give information about historical solar storms

Earth.com writes about a Finnish study where researchers have discovered a new way to study the impact of solar storms on Earth by analyzing the radiocarbon concentration in tree rings.

The study was conducted by a research group coordinated by the University of Helsinki, in collaboration with the Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) and the University of Oulu.

The team was able to detect a spike in radiocarbon concentration in trees from Lapland, Finland, following the Carrington Event of 1859, one of the largest recorded solar storms in the last two centuries.

The connection between geomagnetic storms and fires lies in their potential to induce electric currents in conductive materials, such as power lines, pipelines, and other infrastructure. During intense geomagnetic storms, these induced currents can surge through power lines, transformers, and other electrical equipment, leading to overheating, arcing, and ultimately, ignition.

One of the most significant threats arises in regions with extensive electrical infrastructure, such as power substations and distribution networks. The sudden influx of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can overwhelm transformers and other critical components, causing them to malfunction or fail catastrophically. 

Risk of spontaneous wildfires in dry areas

In some cases, the intense heat generated by these electrical anomalies can ignite surrounding vegetation or structures, sparking wildfires that spread rapidly in vulnerable landscapes.

Moreover, the risk of fires resulting from geomagnetic storms is not limited to terrestrial infrastructure. In space, satellites and spacecraft are vulnerable to the effects of solar flares and ensuing geomagnetic disturbances. Electrical systems aboard these spacecraft can experience malfunctions or damage due to induced currents, potentially leading to overheating and, in extreme cases, fire outbreaks.

While the likelihood of a catastrophic fire triggered by a geomagnetic storm may seem remote, history offers sobering reminders of its potential impact. The Carrington Event of 1859, for instance, produced one of the most intense geomagnetic storms on record, causing widespread disruptions to telegraph systems and reportedly igniting fires in telegraph offices due to induced currents.

In recent years, scientists and policymakers have intensified efforts to understand and mitigate the risks posed by geomagnetic storms. Enhanced monitoring and early warning systems provide crucial alerts to utility operators and emergency responders, allowing them to take proactive measures to protect critical infrastructure and mitigate potential damage.

Governments and some fire services are starting to prepare for the worst case scenario

The UK Department for Business Innovation & Skills writes in the white paper Space Weather Preparedness Strategy that there are three main components to space weather:

• Solar flares
• Solar energetic particles; and
• coronal mass ejections 

Each of these has the potential to cause impacts to Earth and they can occur singularly or in a combination which has the potential to cause a wider range of damaging effects to vital infrastructure. 

The US National Weather Service gives the advice to prepare in similar ways as for other natural disasters  on their home page: Fill up plastic water bottles and keep some cash at home in case the banking system goes down.  

Furthermore, advances in space weather forecasting and modeling enable more accurate predictions of geomagnetic storm intensity and potential impacts, offering valuable insights for risk assessment and disaster preparedness.

FEMA and Homeland Security writes in their white paper Federal Operating Concept for Impending Space Weather Events  fr May 2019 that space weather events such as solar flares, solar energetic particles, and geomagnetic disturbances occur regularly and could have measurable effects on critical Earth-based infrastructure, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), satellite operations, communications, aviation, and the electrical power grid. 

"Space Weather" storm watch warnings give us one to  three days to prepare

The catch is: We usually only have 24 - 72 hours before a strong solar flare is observed, and the time when the solar plasma hit s the earth in the form of a geomagnetic storm. Often, a predicted storm misses the earth, or is weakened on the way from the sun. However, we never really know exactly how powerful a geomagnetic storm is going to be until it hits. 

BreadandButterScience.com writes in their white paper Solar storm disaster preparedness plan thst predicting  the intensity of a solar storm is not an exact science.  As a matter of fact, the science is just in its infancy.  

Dakota Duncan ( A firefighter and paramedic by trade) CEM, MPH, Director of Emergency Response at APTIM.com writes about the upcom solar maximum of the current 12 year solar cycle. With the potential impact of solar storms on our emergency management operations, he shares insights on the approaching solar maximum and its implications for preparedness and response strategies.

APTIM specializes in resilience and infrastructure solutions as well as environmental and sustainability solutions.

At present, our defense against solar storms relies heavily on monitoring systems like the Advanced Composition Explorer and the DSCOVR Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite. These systems offer crucial yet limited warnings, providing only a brief window—up to an hour—before a potential impact. This timeframe may allow for partial shutdowns of critical infrastructure if adequately prepared.

However, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) hold promise in enhancing our predictive capabilities. Initiatives such as the Frontier Development Lab, utilizing AI to forecast solar storms, show promising results. The AI model, trained on historical solar exploration data, can predict impending solar storms up to 30 minutes in advance, potentially offering more reaction time.

The collaborative efforts involving NASA, the US Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other partners underscore the significance of this development. The open-source nature of the AI-based prediction system allows for adaptation and integration into critical infrastructure operations, providing a potential defense layer against impending solar disturbances.

How to Prepare: Forecasts regarding the upcoming solar maximum are intricate and come with uncertainties. While the possibility of geomagnetic storms and their consequences exists, it’s not currently a cause for significant concern. However, it’s crucial for individuals and families to consider basic preparations for the potential impact of a prolonged internet outage. This includes:

1. Maintaining alternative communication methods such as landline phones and emergency radio devices.
2. Establishing pre-arranged meeting points in case of separation.
3. Stockpiling essential items and keeping printed copies of important documents.
4. Having a backup plan for critical electronic transactions.

Stay vigilant, stay prepared but do not catastrophize

While the potential for a significant solar storm exists, it’s important to emphasize that this is not an imminent crisis. However, taking proactive measures and staying informed will undoubtedly assist in better managing any unforeseen challenges that may arise. Stay vigilant!

In conclusion, while solar flares and geomagnetic storms may captivate the imagination with their celestial displays, their terrestrial consequences demand careful attention and preparedness. 

By understanding the risks of fires resulting from geomagnetic disturbances and investing in proactive measures to safeguard critical infrastructure, we can mitigate the impact of these silent threats and ensure the resilience of our technological civilization in the face of space weather challenges.