Super computer powers breakthrough in real-time tsunami forecasting
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Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have unveiled a new tsunami forecasting system powered by El Capitan, the world’s fastest supercomputer. The system promises to revolutionize early warning capabilities for coastal communities vulnerable to seismic sea waves.
Developed in collaboration with the Oden Institute at the University of Texas at Austin and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, the project uses El Capitan’s exascale computing power—capable of 2.79 quintillion calculations per second—to simulate how earthquakes deform the ocean floor and generate tsunamis.
At the heart of the system is a “digital twin” model that mimics real-time ocean behaviour using pressure sensor data and physics-based simulations. This allows scientists to infer the impact of an earthquake on the seafloor and predict tsunami wave heights and arrival times with unprecedented speed and accuracy.
“This is the first digital twin with this level of complexity that runs in real time,” said LLNL computational mathematician Tzanio Kolev, co-author of the study.
While El Capitan handled the initial heavy lifting—solving a billion-parameter Bayesian inverse problem in under 0.2 seconds—the resulting dataset enables rapid forecasting on smaller, more accessible GPU clusters. This means real-time predictions could be made during an actual tsunami event, even without access to a supercomputer.
Implications for Coastal Safety
The system could be a game-changer for regions like the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake could send destructive waves ashore within 10 minutes. Traditional warning systems often rely on simplified models and seismic data, which can lead to false alarms or dangerously delayed alerts.
By combining extreme-scale simulations with real-time sensor input, the LLNL team has created a tool that could dramatically improve emergency response and save lives.
You can read the full report on Phys.org or explore the technical details via Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s announcement.
Photo Credit: Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have helped develop an advanced, real-time tsunami forecasting system — powered by El Capitan, the world’s fastest supercomputer — that could dramatically improve early warning capabilities for coastal communities near earthquake zones. (Images courtesy of Tzanio Kolev/LLNL)
