Swedish research institute busts myth about the scale of Europe's 2026 wildfire season
Thank you for choosing Automatic Translation. Currently we are offering translations from English into French and German, with more translation languages to be added in the near future. Please be aware that these translations are generated by a third party AI software service. While we have found that the translations are mostly correct, they may not be perfect in every case. To ensure the information you read is correct, please refer to the original article in English. If you find an error in a translation which you would like to bring to our attention, it would help us greatly if you let us know. We can correct any text or section, once we are aware of it. Please do not hesitate to contact our webmaster to let us know of any translation errors.
A widely circulated graph comparing Europe’s wildfire seasons is giving a misleading picture of the current crisis, according to fire analysts and meteorological experts cited by Swedish broadcaster SVT.
The graphic, which shows total burned area per year, suggests that 2026 has been a relatively mild season — a conclusion experts say is incorrect and potentially dangerous.
Researchers at RISE note that burned‑area statistics no longer reflect the severity of modern wildfires. While earlier seasons were dominated by a few massive fires that burned for weeks, recent years have seen large numbers of fast‑moving, high‑intensity fires that are quickly contained but still threaten communities, infrastructure and lives.
Fire specialists told SVT that Europe is experiencing more ignitions, more evacuations and more high‑risk days than in previous decades, even in years when the total burned area is lower. They warn that climate‑driven conditions — including repeated heatwaves, drought and strong winds — have made fires more destructive and harder to control, regardless of how many hectares ultimately burn.
Meteorologists also point out that several countries have changed how they report burned area, making year‑to‑year comparisons unreliable. The graph, they say, fails to capture the rising number of critical incidents, fatalities, and near‑miss events across southern Europe.
Officials caution that relying on burned‑area totals risks underestimating the threat posed by the 2026 season, which has already produced major fires in Spain, Greece, Italy and France. Fire commanders describe current conditions as “more dangerous than ever,” despite what the graph appears to show.
Global trend: Wildfires are decreasing
Despite a warming climate, both the number of wildfires and the total burned area are declining globally, according to Johan Sjöström, wildfire researcher at the Swedish research institute RISE.
“This is because the largest areas that burn worldwide are savannas in Africa and South America. These fires are often set intentionally to improve grazing and agricultural land. These methods are now being used less,” he says.
Illustration created by MS Co-Pilot from a prompt by Bjorn Ulfsson.
Further Reading:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-no-europe-is-not-having-its-quietest-year-for-wildfires
https://forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/apps/effis.statistics/estimates
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/fire-weather-eu-wildfires-data
https://hannahritchie.substack.com/p/europe-wildfires-2026
Climate change is not the only factor
Climate change is expected to increase the risk and severity of wildfires in ecosystems such as rainforests, according to the UN climate panel IPCC.
In the boreal zone, which includes most of Sweden, wildfires have become larger and more frequent, and may increase further in a warmer climate, the IPCC writes.
“But climate change is never the only driver of how much burns. How we use land, how we ignite fires, and how we extinguish them are also very decisive factors,” says Johan Sjöström.