Wildfire disasters are making headlines — But global burned area is reportedly shrinking
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From the charred hills of California to the scorched forests of Greece, wildfire disasters have become a staple of global news coverage. Yet despite the rising visibility and intensity of these events, the total amount of land burned by wildfires globally is reportedly declining — a paradox that scientists say is rooted in land use, climate dynamics, and human intervention.
This topic is covered in The Conversation , on August 21, 2025.
According to a detailed analysis published by The Conversation, satellite data reveals that the global area burned by wildfires has dropped by about 25% since 2003. This trend is most pronounced in savanna and grassland regions of Africa and South America, where fire was once a regular part of the ecosystem. As agriculture expands and grazing intensifies, these landscapes are becoming less flammable — not more.
This decline contrasts sharply with the rising frequency of catastrophic wildfires in populated areas like the western United States, southern Europe, and Australia. These regions are seeing more intense, fast-moving fires that threaten homes, infrastructure, and lives — even though they represent a smaller fraction of total burned land.
Experts from the Global Fire Emissions Database and the European Space Agency note that urban sprawl into fire-prone wildlands is a major factor behind the surge in fire-related disasters. As more people live near forests and grasslands, the risk to life and property increases — even if the total area burned is shrinking.
In California, for example, the 2020 and 2021 fire seasons were among the most destructive on record, with billions in damages and dozens of fatalities. Yet statewide, the total acreage burned was not unprecedented compared to historical norms.
Climate change plays a complex role. In some regions, hotter and drier conditions are increasing fire risk, especially in boreal forests and Mediterranean zones. In others, changing rainfall patterns and land conversion are reducing fire frequency. A 2022 study in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment found that climate-driven fire risk is highly regional, with some areas becoming more fire-prone and others less so.
The decline in global burned area also reflects better fire management practices in some countries, including controlled burns, early detection systems, and community-based fire prevention. Indigenous fire stewardship — long marginalized — is gaining recognition for its role in maintaining healthy, fire-resilient landscapes.
Further reading:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00285-8
https://www.globalfiredata.org/
https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Fire